2026-08-19 to 2026-08-25 · measured on 455,770 logged prediction moments · updated 2026-08-26
| horizon out | n | feed ETA within-1-min | MetraX within-1-min |
|---|---|---|---|
| [0,5) min | 29854 | 99.4% | 83.5% |
| [5,15) min | 31909 | 76.1% | 70.8% |
| [15,30) min | 6358 | 38.2% | 44.2% |
| [30,60) min | 1088 | 19.8% | 21.3% |
Same ticks, same stops, paired rows only (series since Aug 21, 5 day(s)). Short horizons structurally favor a live feed; the replayed model here anchors on realized arrivals only and understates the live system. The decision-relevant horizon is 15 minutes and beyond.
| element | within-1-min lift | error change |
|---|---|---|
| Route history | +7.0 pts | −7.6% |
| Delay momentum | +4.2 pts | −15.8% |
| Signal freshness | +0.2 pts | −1.8% |
| Full blend (shipped) | +6.9 pts | −16.9% |
Each element measured against the naive baseline on identical rows (paired), trained only on data prior to each scored day.
Every metric on this page is computed from MetraX's own logged observations replayed against realized arrivals — no hand-picked examples, no survivorship. "Within 1 minute" means the displayed arrival minute was at most one minute off. The shipped-model series begins 2026-08-21.